Investigating the spread of infectious salmon anemia in Atlantic salmon farming: a stochastic space-time model
Seminar Room 1, Newton Institute
Infectious salmon anemia is an infectious disease of farmed salmon. The first outbreak was in Norway in 1984. Control strategies have not yet succeeded in controlling the spread in Norway and North America. The purpose of this research was to investigate the relative importance of teh main risk factore associated with different routes of transmission. We study proximity to an infectious farm, measured by distance and contact network, and the amount of biomass at farm sites. We allow for a further un-identified transmission route, possibly representing boat traffic or infected smolt. We suggest a stochastic space-time model for the disease along the farm sites of the norwegian coast. We analyse data betweenn 2000 and 2005, containig 73 cases and about 1100 farm sites. We shall present the model and preliminary results.
This is joint work with Ida Scheel (University of Oslo), Magne Aldrin (NR Norwegian Computing Centre) and Peder A. Jansen (The Norwegian Veterinary Institute).