Volcanic hazards and uncertainty: granular flow simulations and statistics
Seminar Room 1, Newton Institute
AbstractThis paper presents a methodology for developing a volcanic hazard map. Simulations of granular mass flows using the TITAN2D computational environment, combined with field observations at Colima Volcano in Mexico and the Soufriere Hills Volcano on the island of Montserrat, provide data to be assimilated. Statistical methods are used to provide a quantitative accounting of uncertainty – uncertainty in model parameters, or initial data, or Geographic Information Systems inputs – in the output of simulation. A Bayesian study of the Soufriere Hills eruptions, together with TITAN2D simulations and an analysis of extreme events, gives a probabilistic estimate of future hazard on Montserrat.
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