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Model uncertainty in weather and climate models: Stochastic and multi-physics representations

Berner, J (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Friday 27 August 2010, 14:00-15:00

Seminar Room 1, Newton Institute


A multi-physics and a stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme are employed to represent model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Both model-error schemes lead to significant improvements over the control ensemble system that is simply a downscaled global ensemble forecast with the same physics for each ensemble member. The improvements are evident in verification against both observations and analyses, but different in some details. Overall the stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme outperforms the multi-physics scheme, except near the surface. Best results are obtained when both schemes are used simultaneously, indicating that the model error can best be captured by a combination of multiple schemes.


[ppt ]


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