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Current use of stochastic methods in operational NWP/climate forecasting: are they physically justifiable

Shutts, G (Met Office)
Monday 23 August 2010, 16:45-17:45

Seminar Room 1, Newton Institute


The physical basis for current methods of stochastic parametrization in NWP/climate models is reviewed and their plausibility assessed with respect to unresolved or near-gridscale meteorological phenomena. This issue is closely related to that of the predictability of convective scale and mesoscale weather systems. The coarse-graining strategy is described and applied to high-resolution NWP model forecast output and cloud-resolving model simulations of deep, tropical convection. The results are used to provide some constraints on the stochastic backscatter and the perturbed physical tendency approaches.


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